本文摘要：When shares in Daimler’s China joint venture partner begin trading in Hong Kong later this week, the listing’s sponsors are hoping that investors will be reminded of another stock that has soared by virtue of its association with German manufacturing excellence.戴姆勒(Daimler)在华合资伙伴北汽的股票将于本周晚些时候在香港开始上海证券交易所交易，上市保荐人期望这将让投资者回想另一只股票，因为与德国卓越生产能力的关系，该股以求大幅度攀升。

When shares in Daimler’s China joint venture partner begin trading in Hong Kong later this week, the listing’s sponsors are hoping that investors will be reminded of another stock that has soared by virtue of its association with German manufacturing excellence.戴姆勒(Daimler)在华合资伙伴北汽的股票将于本周晚些时候在香港开始上海证券交易所交易，上市保荐人期望这将让投资者回想另一只股票，因为与德国卓越生产能力的关系，该股以求大幅度攀升。For Beijing-based BAIC Motor, China’s fifth-largest domestic carmaker, comparisons with Brilliance China Automotive are flattering. Since Brilliance Auto was selected as BMW’s China partner in March 2003, its Hong Kong shares have risen more than 800 per cent.将北汽股份公司(BAIC Motor)与华晨中国汽车(Brilliance China Automotive)相提并论也许有些低看了，北汽股份总部坐落于北京，是中国第五大自律品牌汽车制造商。

华晨汽车集团(Brilliance Auto)自2003年3月被宝马(BMW)评为在华合资伙伴以来，其在香港上海证券交易所的股票涨幅已多达800%。For early investors in Brilliance Auto, the timing was perfect. The company’s manufacturing joint venture with BMW, based in Shenyang, was up and running just in time for China’s emergence as the world’s largest car market. Last year, passenger car sales in the world’s second-largest economy reached 18m units, compared with 15.6m in the US.对于华晨汽车的早期投资者来说，与宝马的合作适逢其时。就在中国沦为全球仅次于汽车市场之际，该公司与宝马坐落于沈阳的合资生产企业及时建成投产。全球第二大经济体去年乘用车销量超过1800万台，美国为1560万台。

While still trailing Volkswagen unit Audi, which got off to an earlier start in China, BMW has long enjoyed a comfortable lead over Daimler’s Mercedes-Benz division in China’s market for premium sedans. BAIC’s backers say that as Mercedes closes the gap, it too will offer investors an opportunity to cash in on the biggest motor boom in history.宝马目前仍领先于大众(Volkswagen)旗下的奥迪(Audi)，后者在华跟上较早于，但在中国高档车市场上，宝马仍然领先于戴姆勒旗下的梅赛德斯-飞驰(Mercedes-Benz)。北汽的出资者们回应，随着梅赛德斯渐渐平上宝马，北汽也将让投资者有机会从汽车史上仅次于的兴旺中利润。Priced at HK$8.90 per share — midway in the HK$7.60-HK$9.80 indicative price range — BAIC will raise US$1.4bn through the offering.北汽IPO发行价为每股8.9港币，坐落于参照定价区间7.6港币到9.8港币的中间方位，预计融资14亿美元。

Daimler, which has a 12 per cent stake in the state-owned carmaker, has said it would welcome a cross shareholding arrangement with its China partner in future. BAIC declined to comment ahead of the December 19 IPO.戴姆勒持有人这家国有车企12%的股权，它回应青睐与其中国合作伙伴在今后的交叉股权决定。北汽拒绝接受在12月19日月上海证券交易所前公开发表评论。

BAIC’s sales pitch, however, differs from Brilliance Auto’s in two respects. While Brilliance only has one partner and limited manufacturing operations of its own, BAIC’s IPO comes with baggage including a larger joint venture with Hyundai and own-brand operations that lost Rmb3.3bn ($537m) last year, according to Bernstein analysts.不过北汽的卖点与华晨汽车不存在两点有所不同。伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)分析师认为，华晨只有单一合资伙伴，自律生产业务的规模也并不大，而北汽IPO还涵盖其与韩国现代(Hyundai)规模更大的合资企业，以及自律品牌业务，后者在去年亏损了33亿元人民币（大约5.37亿美元）。BAIC’s partnership with Hyundai is highly profitable, with earnings of Rmb5.4bn in 2013 compared with Rmb757m from the Mercedes venture. Hyundai was the second most popular brand in China last year after VW.北汽与现代的合作利润丰厚，2013年盈利54亿元人民币，而与梅赛德斯的合资企业仅有构建盈利7.57亿元人民币。

现代是中国去年第二大受欢迎品牌，次于大众。The South Korean carmaker’s joint venture with BAIC has an annual capacity of 900,000 units at its main Beijing plant, and the two partners have plans to build two more factories in Chongqing and Changzhou, a city southwest of the capital in Hebei province.现代与北汽在北京主要工厂的年产量为90万台，双方计划在重庆和沧州再行辟两座工厂，沧州坐落于河北省不会保定市的西南方向。BAIC’s relationship with Hyundai makes it more like other state-owned giants, such as Dongfeng Motor or Guangzhou Automobile Group, that also derive most of their profits from joint ventures with mass market players such as Peugeot Citroen, Nissan, Honda and Toyota. “Originally they were trying to push [BAIC] as a kind of luxury play. Brilliance would be the comparison,” says Janet Lewis, head of Macquarie’s industrials and transport research team in Hong Kong. “But investors are realising that 90 per cent of their profits come from Hyundai. A better comparison is Dongfeng or Guangzhou Auto.”北汽与现代的关系，使其更加像东风汽车(Dongfeng Motor)、广汽集团(Guangzhou Automobile Group)等其他国有汽车巨头，这些车企的大部分盈利也来自与标致雪铁龙(Peugeot Citron)、日产(Nissan)、本田(Honda)和丰田(Toyota)等大众市场品牌的合资企业。

麦格理(Macquarie)在香港的工业与交通运输研究团队的负责人珍妮特刘易斯(Janet Lewis)回应：“最初，他们企图将北汽定位为豪华车生产商，可与华晨相提并论。然而投资者意识到，北汽90%的利润来自现代。更加适合的转换应当是东风或广汽。

”BAIC is also coming to market at a time when slowing economic growth finally appears to be affecting previously impervious demand in the car sector. In November, sales of passenger cars rose just 4.7 per cent year-on-year, the slowest rate of expansion in almost two years according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.北汽回国港上市之际，中国经济快速增长上升或许再一影响到了汽车业市场需求。根据中国汽车工业协会(CAAM)的数据，今年11月，中国乘用车销量同比只下降了4.7%，是近两年来的低于增幅。Year-on-year sales of domestic brands such as BAIC’s Senova passenger cars, based on SAAB technology acquired five years ago from the now-defunct Swedish car group, did slightly better last month, rising 5.5 per cent according to CAAM data. But analysts remain sceptical whether China’s state-owned domestic brands can win over drivers — or make a profit. “BAIC makes unit losses for every Senova sedan it sells,” Robin Zhu, Bernstein analyst, wrote in a note.根据中国汽车工业协会的数据，还包括北汽绅宝(Senova)在内的自律品牌乘用车的展现出显然要更佳一点，上月销量同比快速增长5.5%。但是，中国国有车企的自律品牌能否夺得车主接纳并构建盈利呢？分析师仍然所持猜测态度。

伯恩斯坦的Robin Zhu在一份报告中写到：“北汽每售出一辆绅宝都要亏损。”北汽5年前并购了目前已不复存在的瑞典萨博公司(SAAB)，以后者的技术为基础研发并发售了绅宝。“As Senova volumes ramp up, we fear BAIC’s domestic brand loss could increase, eroding incremental profits at Hyundai and Mercedes.”“随着绅宝销量的减少，我们担忧北汽自律品牌的亏损可能会减少，从而风化现代和梅赛德斯所带给的增量利润。

”BAIC’s original selling point remains compelling. Over the first 10 months of this year, Daimler’s China unit reported a 30 per cent rise in Mercedes sales to 226,000 vehicles, putting it on track to sell 300,000 cars next year as outlined in a three-year turnround plan.北汽最初的推展卖点仍然很有说服力。今年头十个月，戴姆勒中国业务报告，梅赛德斯销量快速增长30%超过22.6万辆，这使其未来将会构建三年扭亏计划中关于明年销售30万辆的目标。

BAIC and Daimler have rapidly expanded their Mercedes dealership network to take advantage of growing demand in smaller cities. Their venture is also doing well in larger cities where strict limits on new licence plates to curb congestion and pollution have capped the size of the local market.北汽和戴姆勒已很快不断扩大了梅赛德斯经销网络，以利用中小城市汽车市场需求大大快速增长的趋势。双方合资业务在较小城市也展现出不俗，为了增加交通堵塞和污染，这类城市对派发新的牌照有严苛容许，从而容许了当地市场的规模。Such limits are effectively turning cities such as Beijing and Shanghai into replacement markets, which tend to favour premium brands as existing drivers upgrade their vehicles.北京、上海等大城市实施的容许措施，实质上使它们沦为“新一代型市场”，这往往更加不利于高端品牌，因为现有车主不会偏向于换回更佳的车。

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